[HET Lunch Discussion] Covid Chaos and Epidemiology

by Peter Boyle (BNL)

Friday 17 Mar 2023, 12:30 → 14:00 US/Eastern

Small Seminar Room (https://bnl.zoomgov.com/j/1606326508?pwd=dTJPb25nWnJPMmdMNGZLQnUyV2ViZz09)

I review the SEIR fundamental equations of epidemiology and reproduce the fundamental paper “Seasonality and period doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model”, where intrinsic chaotic behavior in epidemiology was discovered. I reproduce via numerical integration known results that measles epidemiology parameters display intrinsic chaos and compare to data. I extend the model to introduce an immunity-waning time constant, and ask the question: Does Covid behave with intrinsic chaos? I discuss the nature of the long term endemic equilibrium.

Hybrid event